‘Chancellor’s Majority’ Eludes Angela Merkel in Greek Vote

By MELISSA EDDY Published: November 30, 2012

BERLIN — By the time German lawmakers convened to vote on a fresh bundle of bailout money for Greece on Friday, it was widely expected that the measure would pass easily — as it did.

 But in the numbers game that is parliamentary politics, the important figure was not the 473 votes in favour of the next instalment of loans and aid for Greece, totalling €43.7 billion, or $56.7 billion.

The focus instead was on the 23 lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s own centre-right coalition who voted against the measure, robbing her, for the third consecutive vote on Greece, of the so-called chancellor’s majority, or absolute majority among her government’s own deputies.

While not relevant for Friday’s vote, the chancellor’s majority is widely seen as an indicator of the strength of the incumbent’s power base, because most legislation put before the lower house of Parliament requires only a simple majority of those voting. Missing it on three votes in a row on one policy matter, in this case, Greece, is unusual.

“The missed chancellor’s majority is a clear sign that even if one wants to be a good colleague, even her party colleagues do not agree with her government’s policy of pushing these packages through Parliament,” said Manuel Becker, a political scientist at the University of Bonn.

With federal elections set for next Sept. 22, Ms. Merkel remains personally popular with voters but faces rising discontent from within her own Christian Democratic Union, or C.D.U. While she does not appear to face any clear threat before next week’s party congress, where she is virtually certain to emerge as the party’s nominee in the election, disgruntled members have become more willing to voice unhappiness at her perceived shortcomings.

“The C.D.U. must convince people, and especially businesses, with strong arguments as to why they deserve their votes,” said Kurt Lauk, a party economic expert. “The slogan ‘Peace, Happiness and Merkel’ will not be enough.”

The fate of the Free Democratic Party poses the greatest challenge to Ms. Merkel’s current coalition, made up of Free Democrats, Christian Democrats and their sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union.

The Free Democrats are now polling dangerously at or below the 5 percent minimum needed to get into Parliament. And they are balking at the idea of more debt relief for Greece, although they apparently acknowledge that Athens will need more help before it can borrow on the open market.

“We need to recognize that no one at any time has promised that in one fell swoop, we will flip a switch and the issue will be resolved,” said Otto Fricke, a Free Democrat deputy. “Anyone who thinks this is the last time that we have voted on this issue is mistaken.”

Germany is one of Greece’s largest creditors and all parties understand that Berlin’s support is crucial not only for the success of the package but also the entire euro zone. That leaves the opposition parties with few options other than to criticize Ms. Merkel’s government.

The Greens joined the Social Democrats in criticizing Ms. Merkel for failing to level with German taxpayers about the true cost of the effort. The current package aims to cut Greek debt, estimated at 175 percent of gross domestic product, down to 124 percent by 2020.

For the first time this week, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble acknowledged that the Greek package would cut into the federal budget: €730 million this year and €660 million in 2014.

Speaking in favour of the debt package, Mr. Schäuble praised the restructuring efforts of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ government and warned that the current discussion of writing down Greek debt would sap Athens’ drive to continue with the painful course of reforms required by Germany and the other international lenders.

“If we say that the debt will be forgiven, then the readiness to save in exchange for further help is weakened,” Mr. Schäuble told Parliament. “If we want to help Greece along this difficult path, then we must go forward step by step.”

In Greece, government officials welcomed the German vote and expressed hope that it would influence similar votes in other European legislatures.

The International Monetary Fund has insisted that fresh money, or even a write-down, will be needed to put Greece on a path to manageable debt by the end of the decade. Ms. Merkel and Mr. Schäuble have repeatedly rejected such a measure.

The Netherlands is also leery of more debt relief for Athens. In an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung on Friday, the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, called for a change in E.U. laws to allow a country to leave the euro.

“We want to make it possible for a euro zone country to be able to quit the euro if it wants,” Mr. Rutte said, insisting that all members must respect the rules governing the currency union. He did not specifically mention Greece.

The overall unemployment rate among the 17 E.U. nations using the euro has climbed to 11.6 percent, its highest rate since 1995, according to official figures. While the German economy remains largely immune to the suffering on its borders, the most recent figures show growth slowing and investor confidence dipping.

So far Ms. Merkel has been able to quell calls from within her coalition for Greece to leave the euro zone by insisting that the consequences would be far more dire for Germany than giving more assistance.

Niki Kitsantonis contributed reporting from Athens.

‘Chancellor’s Majority’ Eludes Angela Merkel in Greek Vote - NYTimes.com